Beating the odds:

I thought I’d throw this out there for a jump in my stats. 😉 That’s for you Lizzie.

So, the trial medication that I just started can interact with a certain virus that is in some people, with possible bad, horrible things, that would happen…

I have that virus.

So basically, there is a 0.4% chance that these would interact. Pretty good odds that they won’t. If they did interact though…I would have a 1 out of 3 chance that I would die. Let’s just say a painful death to make it interesting.

Three effects of the interaction:

  • Worsening of disability on a minor scale.
  • Worsening of disability on a major scale.
  • Death.

Current world population is  6,999,177,537 .

Using that figure, I had a 1 in 8,176,609, chance of even getting in this trial.

Now that I am in it, I have a 1 in 32,706, chance of having an interaction.

If I have an interaction, I have a 1 in 10,902, chance of dying.

Of course we all have a 1 in 5 chance of dying from heart disease, so looks like I’m beating the odds so far. 😉

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25 thoughts on “Beating the odds:

  1. I hope it all goes well for you. I couldn’t think of a way to ask you how that went, besides e-mail, posting, FAcebook, twitter, comment is unrelated or skywriting.

  2. If you die, I want your bunny slippers.
    But all things being equal, I’d rather you didn’t.

    Hoping the odds above are reversed in your favor for the medicine working, and can’t wait to see you skydive. And dance.
    And glad you have a sense of humor about it!

    • Thanks EG. I actually have much better odds of being hit by a car or something like that, but it was fun to figure out. I actually forgot to add in the 50/50 chance that I have of being on a placebo, so that kind of ups my odds a bit.

      Regardless, I couldn’t dance even when I could walk, so the odds of that are pretty bad, but I love that you thought of that.

  3. Sorry to hear about what the figures can tell and the odds that lies across it. Regardless of those, we can never tell, I do hope you’re fine because you have too…. I haven’t participated in any of the fill in the blanks blog posting yet 🙂 ((hugs))

  4. you are 1 in a gazillion to me! thanks for the wink 🙂 That;s scary stuff – but I think the odds of winning the lottery are better ?? Hoping it all goes and stays ok 🙂

    • I am already, so I’m not to worried about it. It just was fun to figure it out. I told my husband when I first started the trial that he could never say I wasn’t 1 in a million. Actually I am one in 8 million something. 😉

  5. My grandpa used to have a post on his fridge. It said:

    “There are only two things to worry about. Either you are healthy or you are sick.”
    If you are healthy then there’s nothing to worry about
    If you are sick, there are only two things to worry about: you will either get better or you will get worse.
    If you get better, there’s nothing to worry about.
    If you get worse, there’s just two things to worry about:
    You will either live, or you will die.
    If you live – then there’s nothing to worry about.
    And if you die – there’s only two things to worry about:
    You’re either going to Heaven or you’re going to Hell.
    If you go to Heaven, there’s nothing to worry about,
    and if you go to Hell, you’ll be so busy shaking hands with your friends, you won’t have any TIME to worry!”

    ’nuff said ! 😀

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